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The uneven influence of climate trends and agricultural policies on maize production in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Márdero Jiménez, Silvia Sofía [autora] | Schmook, Birgit Inge [autora] | López Martínez, Jorge Omar [autor] | Cicero Jurado, Lizette [autora] | Radel, Claudia [autora] | Christman, Zachary John [autor].
Tipo de material: Artículo
 en línea Artículo en línea Tipo de contenido: Texto Tipo de medio: Computadora Tipo de portador: Recurso en líneaTema(s): Maíz | Productividad agrícola | Cambio climático | Explotación agrícola en pequeña escala | Política agrícolaTema(s) en inglés: Corn | Agricultural productivity | Climatic changes | Small-scale farming | Agricultural policyDescriptor(es) geográficos: Yucatán (Península) (México) Nota de acceso: Acceso en línea sin restricciones En: Land. Volumen 7, número 3 (June 2018), páginas 1-20. --ISSN: 2073-445XNúmero de sistema: 58898Resumen:
Inglés

Maize is an important staple crop in Mexico, and the recent intensification of climate variability, in combination with non-climatic forces, has hindered increases in production, especially for smallholder farmers. This article demonstrates the influence of these drivers on maize production trends in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula using a mixed methods approach of climatic analysis and semi-structured interviews. Climate trend analysis and generalized additive models (GAMs) demonstrate relationships between production and climatic variability, using 1980-2010 precipitation and temperature data. Data from forty interviews with government officials and representatives of farmers' associations (gathered in 2015 and 2016) highlight the influence of agricultural policy on maize production in the region. The climate trend analysis yielded mixed results, with a statistically significant negative rainfall trend for Quintana Roo and variability in maximum temperature changes across the region, with an increase in Yucatan State and Quintana Roo and a decrease in Campeche. Climate and production GAMs indicate a strong significant relationship between production and climate fluctuations for Campeche (79%) and Quintana Roo (72%) and a weaker significant relationship for the Yucatan State (31%). Informants identified precipitation variability and ineffective public policies for smallholder agricultural development as primary obstacles for maize production, including inadequate design of agricultural programs, inconsistent agricultural support, and ineffective farmers' organizations. Quantifying the influence of climate change on maize production, and the amplifying influence of national and regional agricultural policy for smallholder farmers, will inform more appropriate policy design and implementation.

Recurso en línea: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/7/3/80
Lista(s) en las que aparece este ítem: Birgit Inge Schmook
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Acceso en línea sin restricciones

Maize is an important staple crop in Mexico, and the recent intensification of climate variability, in combination with non-climatic forces, has hindered increases in production, especially for smallholder farmers. This article demonstrates the influence of these drivers on maize production trends in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula using a mixed methods approach of climatic analysis and semi-structured interviews. Climate trend analysis and generalized additive models (GAMs) demonstrate relationships between production and climatic variability, using 1980-2010 precipitation and temperature data. Data from forty interviews with government officials and representatives of farmers' associations (gathered in 2015 and 2016) highlight the influence of agricultural policy on maize production in the region. The climate trend analysis yielded mixed results, with a statistically significant negative rainfall trend for Quintana Roo and variability in maximum temperature changes across the region, with an increase in Yucatan State and Quintana Roo and a decrease in Campeche. Climate and production GAMs indicate a strong significant relationship between production and climate fluctuations for Campeche (79%) and Quintana Roo (72%) and a weaker significant relationship for the Yucatan State (31%). Informants identified precipitation variability and ineffective public policies for smallholder agricultural development as primary obstacles for maize production, including inadequate design of agricultural programs, inconsistent agricultural support, and ineffective farmers' organizations. Quantifying the influence of climate change on maize production, and the amplifying influence of national and regional agricultural policy for smallholder farmers, will inform more appropriate policy design and implementation. eng

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