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Projecting the effects of climate change on the distribution of maize races and their wild relatives in Mexico
Ureta, Carolina ; Martínez Meyer, Enrique (coaut.) ; Perales Rivera, Hugo Rafael (coaut.) ; Álvarez Buylla, Elena R. (coaut.) ;
Contenido en: Global Change Biology Vol. 18, no 3 (March 2012), p. 1073–1082 ISSN: 1365-2486
Resumen en: Inglés |
Resumen en inglés

Climate change is expected to be a significant threat to biodiversity, including crop diversity at centers of origin and diversification. As a way to avoid food scarcity in the future, it is important to have a better understanding of the possible impacts of climate change on crops. We evaluated these impacts on maize, one of the most important crops worldwide, and its wild relatives Tripsacum and Teocintes. Maize is the staple crop in Mexico and Mesoamerica, and there are currently about 59 described races in Mexico, which is considered its center of origin . In this study, we modeled the distribution of maize races and its wild relatives in Mexico for the present and for two time periods in the future (2030 and 2050), to identify the potentially most vulnerable taxa and geographic regions in the face of climate change. Bioclimatic distribution of crops has seldom been modeled, probably because social and cultural factors play an important role on crop suitability. Nonetheless, rainfall and temperature still represent a major influence on crop distribution pattern, particularly in rainfed crop systems under traditional agrotechnology. Such is the case of Mexican maize races and consequently, climate change impacts can be expected. Our findings generally show significant reductions of potential distribution areas by 2030 and 2050 in most cases. However, future projections of each race show contrasting responses to climatic scenarios. Several evaluated races show new potential distribution areas in the future, suggesting that proper management may favor diversity conservation. Modeled distributions of Tripsacum species and Teocintes indicate more severe impacts compared with maize races. Our projections lead to in situ and ex situ conservation recommended actions to guarantee the preservation of the genetic diversity of Mexican maize.

Ecological niches and geographic distributions / A. Townsend Peterson, Jorge Soberón, Richard G. Pearson, Roberto P. Anderson, Enrique Martínez Meyer, Miguel Nakamura, Miguel Bastos Araújo
Peterson, A. Townsend (1964-) ; Soberón, Jorge (coaut.) ; Pearson, Richard G. (coaut.) ; Anderson, Robert P. (coaut.) ; Martínez Meyer, Enrique (coaut.) ; Nakamura, Miguel (coaut.) ; Bastos Araújo, Miguel (coaut.) ;
Princeton, New Jersey : Princeton University Press , 2011
Clasificación: 574.5247 / E2
Bibliotecas: Campeche , Tapachula
SIBE Campeche
ECO040004798 (Disponible)
Disponibles para prestamo: 1
SIBE Tapachula
ECO020012979 (Disponible) , ECO020012502 (Disponible)
Disponibles para prestamo: 2
Índice | Resumen en: Inglés |
Resumen en inglés

This book provides a first synthetic view of an emerging area of ecology and biogeography, linking individual- and population-level processes to geographic distributions and biodiversity patterns. Problems in evolutionary ecology, macroecology, and biogeography are illuminated by this integrative view. The book focuses on correlative approaches known as ecological niche modeling, species distribution modeling, or habitat suitability modeling, which use associations between known occurrences of species and environmental variables to identify environmental conditions under which populations can be maintained. The spatial distribution of environments suitable for the species can then be estimated: a potential distribution for the species. This approach has broad applicability to ecology, evolution, biogeography, and conservation biology, as well as to understanding the geographic potential of invasive species and infectious diseases, and the biological implications of climate change.


1. Introduction
This Volume
Part I
2. Concepts of Niches
Major Themes in Niche Concepts
Grinnellian and Eltonian Niches
Estimating Grinnellian Niches: Practicalities
3. Niches and Geographic Distributions
Relations between Environmental and Geographic Spaces
The Ecological Equations
The BAM Diagram: A Thinking Framework
Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions
Estimating Geographic Areas and Ecological Niches
Part II
4. Niches and Distributions in Practice: Overview
General Principles
Steps to Building Niche Models
5. Species’ Occurrence Data
Types of Occurrence Data
Occurrence Data Content and Availability
6. Environmental Data
Species-Environment Relationships
Environmental Data for Ecological Niche Modeling
Environmental Data in Practice
7. Modeling Ecological Niches
What Is Being Estimated?
Modeling Algorithms
Model Calibration
Model Complexity and Overfi tting
Study Region Extent and Resolution Revisited
Model Extrapolation and Transferability
Differences among Methods and Selection of “Best” Models
Characterizing Ecological Niches
8. From Niches to Distributions
Potential Distributional Areas
Nonequilibrium Distributions
Detecting and Processing Nonequilibrium Distributions
9: Evaluating Model Performance and Signifi cance
Presences, Absences, and Errors
Calibration and Evaluation Datasets
Overfi tting, Performance, Signifi cance, and Evaluation Space
Selection of Evaluation Data
Evaluation of Performance
Assessing Model Signifi cance
Future Directions

Part III
10. Introduction to Applications
11. Discovering Biodiversity
Discovering Populations
Discovering Species Limits
Discovering Unknown Species
Connection to Theory
Practical Considerations
Review of Applications
12. Conservation Planning and Climate Change Effects
Connection to Theory
Practical Considerations
Review of Applications
13. Species’ Invasions
Connection to Theory
Practical Considerations
Review of Applications
Caveats and Limitations
Future Directions and Challenges
14. The Geography of Disease Transmission
Connection to Theory
Practical Considerations
Review of Applications
Caveats and Limitations
Future Directions and Challenges
15. Linking Niches with Evolutionary Processes
Changes in the Available Environment
Niche Conservatism
Tests of Conservatism
Learning More about Ecological Niche Evolution
Future Directions and Challenges
16. Conclusions
Appendix A: Glossary of Symbols Used
Appendix B: Set Theory for G- and E-Space